I have brought several articles by the Hussein Agha and Robert Malley team in the past (here and here). In their latest article from the New York Review of Books, they present a dispassionate of Abu Mazen and his prospects.
“Uncomfortable with how negotiations had proceeded up until the Camp David summit, Abu Mazen was adamantly opposed to the outbreak of violence that followed it. Violence long struck him as pointless and unsound, tantamount to using the weakest Palestinian weapon to assail Israel’s strongest flank. Abu Mazen looked at violence in purely cost-benefit terms, and while the costs were high, benefits were few: Israelis closed ranks, the United States took sides, the international community turned its back, and the Palestinian Authority fell apart. Instead, he believes the goal ought to be to engage with various Israeli political groups, talk in a language that Washington understands, and rally the world to the Palestinians’ cause. To that end, Palestinians must stabilize the situation, restore law and order, rein in all armed militias, build transparent, legitimate centralized institutions, and, above all, cease armed attacks against Israel. In his vision, means and ends mesh: if Palestinians make a fair case, they can get a fair hearing. Out of Palestinian restraint will come both stronger international support and greater receptivity by the Israeli public to logical demands.”
Abu Mazen’s vision of a solution, while it may not be perfectly just and perfectly fair, does create a framework of peace in the sense of quiet. As I have said many times, a reasonable two-state solution is a likely pre-requisite for ultimately creating a framework for a more democratic confederation between Jews and Arabs in Israel/Palestine.
It is interesting to note that Agha and Malley, as well as many other analysts, stress how the Palestinians have grown weary of the suffering caused by the current Intifada. It should be noted that the same is equally true on the Israeli side. The Israeli economy is in a shambles. The Israeli middle class is losing ground and slipping into poverty. Many Israelis have been killed and wounded and all still live in fear. Israeli society has been in constant upheavel and people are longing for a respite.
It is precisely the weariness on the Israeli side which may be the source of hope. Sharon’s support is wide but thin. Most Israelis would accept Abu Mazen’s framework if they felt they would have some quiet in their lives.