There are many who believe (or are worried) that Obama will follow the path of some of his predecessors and talk in public about stopping the settlements (and by implication the settlers) but do nothing about it in private. Aluf Benn argues that Obama is serious and has Congressional support on this issue:
United States President Barack Obama lays out long-term visionary goals, such as Middle East peace, but he moves with political pragmatism in advancing them. This is as true of his domestic and economic objectives as it is of his complex approach to Israel.
His statements are carefully tailored to the measure of Congress’ support for Israel. Congressional representatives are committed to preserving Israel’s security and dealing with Iran, but do not support strengthening the settlements. So Obama stresses his support for Israel’s security, but is willing to confront Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the settlements.
Ironically, perhaps, the last President who actually pressured Israel on the settlements issue (by actually withholding US aide) was Bush senior. At the time there was also an extreme right wing government in power. In fact, Shamir is probably more extreme than Netanyahu, and certainly more principled about his extreme positions. Bush managed to leverage his economic pressure to drag Shamir kicking and screaming to Madrid – an almost miracle. But he didn’t let up the pressure which led to the collapse of Shamir’s government which was then booted out by Rabin in elections. Perhaps this is Obama’s strategy as well: pressure Netanyahu to the point where his government collapses and a new government, more amenable to compromise, takes its place.
My other hunch is that the Obama administration will work hard to forge a joint Fatah-Hamas government on the Palestinian side. My hope is that they pressure Israel to release Marwan Barghouti so that he can run in the upcoming Palestinian elections. He is the most likely man who can play the role of the Palestinian Nelson Mandela.
Just as a side note on a point raised in the Benn article: my personal feeling is that Rahm Emanual as chief of staff is the trump card in Obama’s hand. Besides having a keen understanding of the Israeli mentality and so knowing how to blunt all the arguments of the Israeli uber-huhems like Bibi and Barak, he is the best person to manage Congressional opposition to pressure Obama will have to bring to bear on Israel. No one can question his commitment to Israel’s security, which many can and will try to do regarding Obama and perhaps even Clinton.
Tags: Israeli Politics, US Politics