I can’t say I’m sleeping too well these days. With half my family still in Israel, and Bush & Co. intent on war, I’m getting mighty nervous. I’ll write more (when I have some time) on why I think Bush & Co. are totally deluded in thinking their war will be over in a jiffy. But I can briefly comment on the delusions of the Israeli army, which I have commented on before, most recently here and here.
As I noted in those articles, everytime the army crows how they are winning the war, another terrorist attack kills 20 people. Is it any wonder I am losing sleep when once again, Amos Harel writes another article with the following headline:
IDF pleased by PA’s attempt to rein in terror and by its own success in thwarting suicide attacks
What are they pleased about?
“There are still suicide bombings, and will apparently continue to be in the coming months, but the ratio of successful to failed attempts has changed radically.”
“The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) now foils about 15 suicide bombings for every one that succeeds.”
Sounds wonderful. But of course these are meaningless numbers. First of all, one month does not a trend make. A month is an arbitrary time unit. One needs to look at trends over an extended period. In any case, the only number that counts is the number of people killed, not the number of “attempts” foiled. And there has been no decline in that sad number, as Harel himself attests:
“In November, despite only two successful suicide bombings inside Israel, 44 Israelis were killed. This includes the victims of the Mombasa attack, attacks in the territories and two shooting attacks inside Israel. In January, 30 Israelis were killed, 23 of them in the one successful suicide bombing inside Israel.”
Isn’t that reason for optimism? But as always, with the brilliant generals of the Israeli army, there’s more:
“For the first time since the intifada began, there is unanimity among Israel’s top officials – the prime minister and the defense and foreign ministers – that this [expelling Arafat from the territories] needs to be done, and an operational plan already exists. Foreign reports say the elite Sayeret Matkal unit rehearsed it as far back as Operation Defensive Shield last April.”
“What is needed now is opportunity. Once the war on Iraq begins, American opposition to Arafat’s expulsion might soften. Then, one mass-casualty attack on Israel, and the chairman will be gone. Such an attack is not unlikely since both money and orders for attacks have been arriving at an accelerated rate recently – mainly from Iran, but also from Syria and Iraq.”
So first we learn that the Israeli army is still intent on expelling Arafat, and even has an operational plan for it. Isn’t that wonderful? And buried in there is the little nugget that a “mega-terror attack” is “not unlikely.”
Of course, when it happens the Army will crow about its great achievements in the “war on terrorism:” the expulsion of the “arch-terrorist” Arafat, and the foiling of 30 attacks (and who cares that several hundred people died that month).
Is it any wonder than I’m losing sleep?