I know it is an awful cliche to say “the only poll that counts is the one on election day.” But this article from the weekend Ha’aretz should serve as a reminder to us that despite what the polls say, it ain’t over till the fat lady sings (no offense intended against Lesley Gore).
The day of the election where Barak beat Bibi, I was flying out to New York on business. The exit poll results are announced at 10:00 PM on Israeli TV, so I called the cab for 10:05. We lived in Kokhav Yair at the time, where Barak lived as well. You could hear a huge cheer go up from the center of town, as the TV announcer declared Barak the winner.
Taxi drivers in Israel are mostly from the Mizrachi part of the Israeli population, which is, for the most part, anti-Labor and staunch Likud supporters (as the article notes). We talked about the results during the drive to the airport. My driver said simply: “Bibi lost because the economy has never been so bad in 25 years.”
The economy in 1999, when Barak rose to power was like the gold rush days, in comparison to the current state of the Israeli economy. So even though Likud die-hards might tell pollsters they still support their party, come election day, when they look at their empty bank accounts, their hopeless months and years of unemployment under Sharon’s rule, these same voters will do the right thing and dump the failed Sharon government.
Quote of the day:
“During the course of the evening, a vociferous argument broke out between Yoram Ezer and Shai Peretz. Peretz, who serves as chairman of the students’ association at Achva College, tried to explain that the Likud has hurt the weaker classes and increased the gaps in society. Ezer, who works in the municipal inspectorate, clung to the Likud with all his might and tried to convince everyone there that the very existence of the state is at stake, and that only Sharon can undertake this mission successfully. The others rejected his arguments and reminded him of the personal sacrifice the Likud has exacted from the weaker classes – the cut in the welfare budgets, the huge flow of funds to the Jewish settlements in the territories, the growing unemployment and poverty.”
“‘And who isn’t `eating’ this if not we in the development towns?’ asked Peretz.”
Who,indeed?